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Markael Luterra's avatar

Thanks for writing this - I much appreciate your perspectives on this phenomenon and the mass psychology behind it.

For me, the question of covid vaccine safety is first and foremost an epistemological question. What can we know, and what can we not yet know? Is our science and data collection set up so as to know the truth, or to support the truth of a particular predetermined position?

Put another way, if we look at the history of vaccine development, what are the chances that a vaccine developed in less than a year, tested for six months, using a never-before-deployed technology and targeting a novel virus with a CFR of ~1%, will ultimately prove to have a positive risk-benefit ratio? My scientific mind, after examining the history of vaccine development, would put these odds at around 10%.

Whatever we believe these odds to be, is there any possible reason why a government or medical establishment truly interested in maximizing public health would not want to track very large control and treatment groups indefinitely to see whether some harm might appear that would justify changing treatment recommendations?

Like Charles, I started out ambivalent and in fact very nearly chose to get vaccinated, but as it became clear that governments and doctors were planning to become coercive and to prematurely declare complete vaccine safety - before such a statement could possibly be made given unknown long-term effects, despite some worrying signals of harms that were not detected in the trials, and despite the absence of any significant negative correlation between vaccination rates and infection rates - I decided that the odds were against this being a good idea. The more time passes, the more I am convinced that I made the right choice.

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Relendra's avatar

I really appreciate this thorough approach to the covid vaccine safety question, along with the extensive citations that are included for evidentiary reference. As always, the deep care taken to respect people with viewpoints across the spectrum is very welcome. The practice of choosing to see others through the lens that recognizes their highest self as their truest self is a much needed medicine.

There are some on this thread who have raised objections to the arguments made in this article in favor of vaccine skepticism. The most common objection seems to be that if the arguments are not completely dispositive on the issue, then they should be dismissed entirely.

This kind of objection misses the point. The purpose of presenting those arguments in this article is not to present the case that will convince the vaccine credulous into becoming vaccine skeptics. The point is to demonstrate that there is a strong rational basis for the vaccine skeptical viewpoint. It's not necessary to agree with this viewpoint in order to recognize the rational basis for it as a conclusion that many have arrived at.

The purpose in recognizing the grounds for this rational basis to to realize the need for more transparency and open public discourse on the issue - to remove the barriers of censorship, and the threats to the careers of doctors and scientists who present evidence that challenges the vaccine credulous narrative.

Thank you Charles for your ongoing contribution to this end!

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